Cloud – growth or hype?

I just returned from the Interop Cloud conference in New York. All the major players were there talking about the Cloud and what impact it will have on Enterprise IT. The message was quite clear. The Cloud is already here and the growth is propelling. Predicting future growth is a difficult and an uncertain exercise. But let’s take a look at what the forecasting companies are expecting for Cloud growth in the coming years. Some of these figures are not comparable as they are focusing on different areas and markets within Cloud Computing. Therefore we cannot compare the seemingly contradictory figures. But an aggregated view of their predictions might give us a direction.

IDC

In a recent report IDC (1) claims that the growth of public Cloud will go from $40 billion in 2012 to $100 billion in 2016. This constitutes a compound annual growth rate of 26 %, five times the rate of the IT industry overall. IDC sums up these figures with “vendor failure in cloud services will mean stagnation”.

McKinsey

The management consulting firm McKinsey (2) predicts that the worldwide market of public Cloud in the SMB segment will grow from $9 billion in 2010 to around $29 billion in 2015. This means a growth of more than 300 % in the period.

Gartner

In a 2012 report (3) Gartner analysts have forecasted an annual growth of the public Cloud market of 18 % until 2016, reaching a value of $ 206 billion. Of the service models IaaS will be the fastest grower.

Morgan Stanley

In a 2011 report from Morgan Stanley (4) they anticipate that public Cloud will have a 50 % annual growth rate for the next three years (as from 2011).

Forrester

Forrester Research (5) predicts the global Cloud market will grow from $40.7 billion 2011 to $241 billion by 2020.

Even though these figures vary, they all point to the same conclusion. Cloud is growing and will continue to grow faster than the total IT market and at double digit speed. In other words, prepare for the Cloud or get left behind.

Sources

(1)    http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS23684912

(2)    http://www.mckinsey.com/client_service/high_tech/latest_thinking/winning_in_the_smb_cloud

(3)    http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=2163616

(4)    http://www.morganstanley.com/views/perspectives/cloud_computing.pdf

(5)    Forrester Research, Sizing the Cloud, April 2011

About

Nils Vold is Director Business Development in Visma Enterprise Solutions. Cofounder and manager in tech startup Deriga which was acquired by Visma in 2006. Holds a master's degree in Information Technology and also a master of Management.
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